Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 04:24:40

ACUS11 KWNS 300424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300423=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into western and
central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 300423Z - 300530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 573 and
574, and is expected to continue into the overnight hours. A new
Tornado Watch will be issued before 05Z to replace watches 573-574
and cover additional area downstream into central Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to show transient but strong
low-level rotation across portions of western AL, with a TDS
recently indicated on a storm in the Greene/Hale County area. These
storms are persisting in a highly sheared environment, with regional
VADs and 04Z mesoanalysis showing large, curved hodographs and
250-400 effective SRH. Low-level moisture and overall buoyancy
becomes limited with eastward extent, though 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is
in place across western AL, and the better low-level moisture (and
MLCAPE) may slowly drift eastward into central Alabama later
tonight. Supercell structures with transient low-level rotation may
continue to pose a threat for at least isolated tornadoes into the
overnight hours. As such, both Tornado Watches 573-574 will be
replaced with a new Tornado Watch by 05Z, with some downstream
coverage also expected as central AL destabilizes.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!__Ex_qoOZtRAEJlYLU_EYA-V3EuUm9gsdoFIRic8Q1vMgjXgoKi1_KXCSgDB_dCfNc9NSsJzy=
hCWeKxnihZWeWBqF3A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31268714 31348815 31398857 31708910 32008909 32538870
            33418828 33628785 33508733 33198663 32618625 32178625
            31828644 31438675 31268714=20


=3D =3D =3D
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