Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 03:20:58 AWUS01 KWNH 300320 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300917- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1138 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1019 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022 Areas affected...central/northern Alabama, northwestern Georgia, east-central Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 300317Z - 300917Z Summary...Rounds of scattered convection will continue to maintain a flash flood threat across the discussion area through 09Z. Discussion...The remnants of a loosely organized MCS were traversing northern/central Alabama currently. These storms were oriented largely parallel to 60-kt mean flow aloft while occurring in an environment characterized by 1.5+ inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. The orientation of the storms has allowed for occasional 1-2.5 inch/hr rainfall rates to materialize, which has prompted moderate flash responses and likely areas of runoff. While the eastward movement of the ongoing band has resulted in a temporary lull in the heaviest of rain rates in central AL (and a temporary break in rainfall across northwestern AL), upstream convection across central/southern Mississippi and even central Louisiana has shown an uptick in the last 30-60 minutes. The environment in this area is substantially more moist (70s F dewpoints) and buoyant (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and may also be experiencing ascent from the glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Low-level flow also continues to be confluent while impinging on a subtle outflow from prior rainfall that is subjectively analyzed to exist from near Grenada to Starkville to Tuscaloosa. Each of these factors suggest that heavier rainfall will re-develop into the discussion area over the next several hours, with heavier rainfall occurring in a few areas that have already experienced 1-3 inches of rain. The heavy rainfall scenario will likely continue beyond the 09Z expiration time of this MPD as a strong cold front remains over central Arkansas. Until that time, the potential exists for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall - heaviest where persistent training of cells can materialize. Another 1-3 inches of rainfall is possible through 09Z, and isolated areas of 4+ inch amounts cannot be ruled out. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5vj7SDZST3uPMBIFQkHIWVIFkQf8Ol6SqnUFKPRDavxtUz27-qwScuq7YmNgll0Esccx= VRooaGV1P8tYP5rNiAtwcbY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34938583 34918483 34308476 33578517 32818642=20 32008806 31738934 32118972 33288969 34118830=20 34768736=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .