Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 01:01:45

ACUS01 KWNS 300101
SWODY1
SPC AC 300059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR
WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
The potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, damaging
wind gusts, and large hail will continue this evening and overnight
period across parts of the Southeast.

....Southeast...
Multiple pre-frontal supercells developed earlier this afternoon and
early evening in low-level confluence zones across the lower MS
Valley. While convection has recently shown a tendency to grow into
small clusters, there are still semi-discrete and embedded
supercells ongoing this evening from far northeastern LA into
central MS and west-central AL. 00Z observed soundings from JAN/BMX
show a favorable low-level kinematic environment for continued
low-level rotation, although boundary-layer instability remains
weak. Tornadoes will be possible with any supercell that can remain
surface based. Given the strength of the low-level flow shown on
recent VWPs from KGWX/KBMX, parts of central/eastern MS into western
AL may have the best potential for strong tornadoes this evening.
Isolated large hail and scattered damaging winds will also remain a
concern.

Greater severe probabilities have been focused along and south/east
of ongoing severe thunderstorms with this update. The severe threat
will gradually shift eastward across the Southeast overnight.
Convection will eventually outpace the low-level moisture return
with eastward extent across AL into western GA, with activity
possibly becoming slightly elevated. But, at least an isolated
threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes will probably continue
across these areas. Have therefore expanded the Slight and Marginal
Risks a little farther east in GA to account for where a line of
thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early Wednesday morning at
the end of the Day 1 period.

...Gleason.. 11/30/2022

$$

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