Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1985
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 30 2022 00:20:09

ACUS11 KWNS 300020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300019=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-300145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Arkansas into northern
Mississippi and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 300019Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail threat may persist with ongoing storms over
the next several hours. Conditions are being monitored for the need
of a WW issuance if storms can intensify further.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery indicates gradually
intensifying storms across southeast AR into northwest MS, with a
few 50 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft and some 1+ inch MESH streaks
appearing in the past couple of hours. These storms are traversing
the northwest fringe of the instability axis and on the easternmost
axis of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, contributing to
1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both regional VADs and 00Z mesoanalysis
depict elongated, straight hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective
bulk shear, favoring splitting supercells with mainly a large hail
threat. Ongoing storms may persist or perhaps increase in coverage
and intensity for a period of time given the approach of a mid-level
trough. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Q45T3_ulbbmHCquC4pBjablBN1yvbCQ2oqfP3lcchYE9zKgecfaCh-U3szn2zzVzdR2y1Ay5=
Eo5_rNXcCXi4DO8MRU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32999335 33989178 35748909 36678736 36718695 36418681
            35728696 35438699 34888760 33699016 33059185 32999335=20


=3D =3D =3D
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