Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 29 2022 23:12:43

ACUS11 KWNS 292312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292312=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...northern and central Louisiana northeastward to
northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 572...

Valid 292312Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 572 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk continues across the WW area, with
greatest risk for significant tornadoes evident with supercells
crossing northern Louisiana at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of
severe/supercell storms extending from near the Sabine River over
far eastern Texas, northeastward into northwestern Alabama -- within
Tornado Watch 572.  The environment remains quite supportive of
ongoing tornado risk, given the moist/unstable and favorably sheared
pre-frontal environment.  However, rotation/supercell
characteristics with several of the storms have to some degree
remained rather transient.  Still, a few longer-lived/sustained
supercells continue, and expect additional/more organized evolution
over the next couple of hours.

The most substantial of these better-organized rotating cells are
moving east-northeastward across northern Louisiana.  One of these,
now crossing northern Tensas Parish, should cross the Mississippi
River in the Vicksburg vicinity over the next half hour or so.  A
second of these longer-lived supercells is crossing southern Winn
Parish, while a third has organized over northern Sabine County in
East Texas, and will move into Sabine Parish in Louisiana over the
next half hour.  All three of the aforementioned storms appear
capable of producing tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.=20=20

Finally, a separate/potentially tornadic supercell continues to
organize/evolve over southern Jefferson Davis County in Mississippi,
well south of the main convective band.  This storm has produced a
tornado within the past half hour or so, and will move out of the
southeastern portion of Tornado Watch 572 and into newly issued
Tornado Watch 574.

...Goss.. 11/29/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_RD7gHzkbJutj99tHolF6ay8dx83lm5antydnh8Q5f2xtWPDMfXtI7viNviGtX2Oo2MahnV7Q=
m8TjAKsuljmunPZcGo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31509375 31799347 33938905 33818857 32068878 31258929
            31189222 31509375=20


=3D =3D =3D
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