Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1983
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 29 2022 22:46:10

ACUS11 KWNS 292246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292245=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-300015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Mississippi into far
southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292245Z - 300015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may increase across southern portions of
Mississippi and Alabama over the next few hours. The more intense
storms may support hail/tornado threat. Conditions are being
monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch.

DISCUSSION...Multiple semi-discrete cells embedded within a
confluence band have achieved transient supercell structures and
occasional bouts of low-level rotation throughout the afternoon
across southern MS/AL. Temperatures have risen into the upper 70s F,
with similar dewpoints in far southeast MS. At least one supercell
structure in the Lawrence/Jefferson-Davis County area has recently
demonstrated deviant rightward motion, and this storm may persist
eastward amid deeper moisture and elongating hodographs (shown by
regional VADs and RAP forecast soundings). As such, this approaching
storm may contain a large hail/tornado threat over the next few
hours, as well as any other storms which mature in this area.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Tornado
Watch issuance should the Lawrence/Jefferson-Davis County storm
persist and additional storms show sign of intensification.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/29/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5pQCAtnLt77yuvAkATqZEUgOmShrVN7K0vnnMnbUYxY2I_K8JHMi_StNl48AGDZDT7iDqut7m=
-yxHnAMs5PxQcQABm0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31338999 31878918 32168848 32178798 31988751 31648728
            31278734 30998774 30878854 30928924 31008981 31338999=20


=3D =3D =3D
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