Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1980
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 29 2022 19:53:08

ACUS11 KWNS 291953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291952=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...extreme southeast MS into southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291952Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A brief supercell or two may pose a severe threat the next
couple of hours. However, coverage and aerial extent of the threat
is expected to be low, and a watch is not anticipated in the
short-term.

DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have slowly
increased this afternoon. A couple of thunderstorms over far
southeast MS have recently shown moderate low-level rotation in a
strongly sheared environment. A narrow corridor of near-70 F
dewpoints exists across far southeast MS into the Mobile vicinity
where the Gulf marine front has moved inland. Just north of this
boundary surface dewpoints are still in the low 60s F. As storms
track northeast and move into lower-quality boundary-layer moisture,
the severe threat should diminish. Given the small area of
surface-based supercell/tornado potential, a watch is not expected
in the short term. However, conditions should gradually become more
favorable later this afternoon or evening as boundary-layer moisture
advances northward and low-level flow increases. While a watch is
not expected in the short-term, one may be needed later this
evening.

...Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8yR_XDHL2zK80zldsxScbb5GH5skWdW_Y6tLApPkVh14mgIr4pjtbw43AIpLS9JDw7H8PxMif=
rszdyF4NjdMceT2Do8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31868827 31698728 31478692 31048690 30708694 30528706
            30198840 30458880 31098894 31548895 31718881 31868827=20


=3D =3D =3D
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