Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 29 2022 19:45:18

AWUS01 KWNH 291945
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300144-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley...Lower TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291944Z - 300144Z

Summary...Thunderstorms continue to intensify and expand in
coverage over portions of the Lower MS Valley this afternoon.
Repeat rounds of supercells and multicells with rainfall rates
exceeding 2 inches per hour could lead to instances of flash
flooding over the next several hours.

Discussion...Regional radar mosaic and GOES-16 suite depict a
combination of elevated supercell/multicell thunderstorms over
portions of Northern MS containing maximum estimated rainfall
rates of 1.5-1.8 inches per hour. A swath of elevated FLASH CREST
responses of 100-225 cfs/smi was noted over portions over
North-Central MS from this ongoing activity (albeit with possible
hail contamination). These storms have intensified in response to
strong low-level convergence within the 925-850 hPa layer on the
nose of an elevated warm front, aided by a subtle shortwave
perturbation approaching from the west.

Aggressive warm advection continues to foster a favorable
environment for heavy rain over the Lower MS Valley, as 18z
regional soundings and mesoanalysis estimates depict PWATS of
1.4-1.5", SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, and intense veering wind
profiles yielding 200-300+ m2/s2 effective inflow SRH. This
suggests persistent development of surface based, E/NE translating
banded supercell and multicell storms through this afternoon
containing rainfall rates possibly exceeding 2" per hour.

High-resolution CAM guidance has generally struggled with
placement of the highest rainfall totals this afternoon, although
recent runs of the HRRR have done better initializing the recent
band of convection near the MS Delta. The expected repeat
thunderstorms with enhanced rainfall rates coupled could breach
FFGs this afternoon, which vary from 1.5-2" per hour and 2.5-3"
per 3 hours to support instances of flash flooding.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_1eoZId2Z2fIy9-jp0dO1R1nllCcilkMFI9LHlNR1wLuq6caLYxBmfuHf9LlRvbi8NDI=
M8jmzQaYiurkBifd9s5N01s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35308898 35058808 33818825 32199048 33109168=20
            34878999=20

=3D =3D =3D
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