Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1977
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 29 2022 16:57:08

ACUS11 KWNS 291657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291656=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-291900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...far
southern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291656Z - 291900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated
storms early this afternoon. No watch is expected for this activity.
More intense activity is expected later this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As moisture rapidly returns north and east, a few
elevated storms have developed along the leading edge. Current storm
motions may keep this activity at least loosely tied to modest
elevated instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, some
potential for marginally severe hail will exist with the more
intense storms as they move northeast. It does not appear likely
that enough downstream destabilization will occur to support
surface-based updrafts. With that said, strong/damaging wind gust
potential is low.

No watch is anticipated for this activity. Stronger storms are
expected to impact some of these same areas later in the afternoon
and evening.

...Wendt/Hart.. 11/29/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6hpDsOY-SmCn06-PmZ03DYkLkO4zMZfsKLYbT-txrZcdqXY8kXxSwQ6d-fCmaMV5du-hjHUpm=
EhsFVFUiuyk5nUrxyQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34368716 34068856 33998949 34098975 34318995 34778970
            35148907 35478680 35438612 34908603 34368716=20


=3D =3D =3D
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