Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 28 2022 17:32:01 ACUS02 KWNS 281731 SWODY2 SPC AC 281730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage, along with some hail, are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, extending into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few strong/long-track tornadoes will be possible. ....Synopsis... A deep and progressive mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the central/southern Rockies eastward Tuesday morning to parts of the Mississippi Valley region by early Wednesday. A surface cyclone initially over central KS will move quickly northeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening, as an attendant cold front sweeps through the Great Plains and eventually into the Midwest. ....Lower/mid MS Valley into the Southeast... The potential for several long-track supercells remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with a threat of strong tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will quickly stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley region ahead of the cold front on Tuesday, aided by a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Meanwhile, modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, in advance of the deep/progressive mid/upper-level trough. This will result in the development of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) across the warm sector. This destabilization will be occurring within a strongly sheared environment supportive of organized storms, including supercells. Initially elevated convection is expected to gradually increase in coverage through the morning across the ArkLaTex region within a low-level warm advection regime, with additional development possible farther south across southern LA/MS where somewhat stronger heating is expected. A few surface-based supercells are expected to evolve by afternoon, which could potentially be longer-lived as they move northeastward through a moistening and strongly sheared environment. Favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH will support a tornado threat, though some uncertainty remains regarding the impact of potentially weak low-level lapse rates on the tornado potential. Any sustained supercells within the warm sector could pose a strong tornado threat, in addition to a risk of hail and damaging gusts. Storm coverage will continue to increase through the evening and overnight hours, with favorable low-level moisture and strong low-level and deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat of all severe hazards. Some tornado potential is likely to continue overnight across parts of MS into western/central AL. ....Parts of the OH Valley/Midwest... Weaker low-level moisture return is expected farther north into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley in advance of the cold front. Despite weak buoyancy, favorable large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer flow could support a threat of locally damaging gusts with any sustained low-topped convection. There is some potential for a damaging wind threat to spread farther north than currently indicated, and some northward expansion of wind probabilities is possible depending on shorter-term observational and guidance trends. ...Dean.. 11/28/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .