Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 28 2022 12:36:27 ACUS01 KWNS 281236 SWODY1 SPC AC 281234 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Areas of thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... Transition is underway in the mid/upper-level pattern, as heights fall across most of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and Plains States, in advance of a deepening large-scale trough. This will occur as an anchoring cyclone now over southern SK moves slowly eastward, reaching southern MB by the end of the period. A series of shortwaves and an elongated jet core will dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, through the western part of the building cyclonic-flow field. By 12Z tomorrow, this should result in a high-amplitude trough from the MB low across WY, the Four Corners, Sonora, and central Baja. While very brief/ isolated lightning cannot be ruled out amid cold midlevel temperatures, especially north and east of the jet core in the Intermountain region, overall moisture/theta-e appear too low to support an areal lightning risk. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over south-central FL, becoming quasistationary over the east-central Gulf, then a warm front over the central to northwestern Gulf. This boundary should drift southward through most of south FL by tomorrow morning, while moving slowly northward over the north-central Gulf and toward the TX Coast. Associated lift and midlevel lapse rates each should be too weak to support overland thunder potential this period. A separate cold front was drawn at 11Z from a low near MBG across southern SD to central WY. This front should arc across northern MN, north-central to southwestern NE and northeastern CO by 00Z, into an area of surface cyclogenesis over east-central CO. By 12Z, the latter cyclone should move roughly eastward along the front to near the KS/NE border north of CNK. The front should extend from that low southwestward to southeastern CO and northeastward across southeastern MN, still well-displaced from substantial Gulf moisture return, and lacking deep moist convection. ...Edwards.. 11/28/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .