Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 27 2022 20:01:53 ACUS01 KWNS 272001 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PA...NORTHERN WV...WESTERN MD...EASTERN NC...AND SOUTHEAST VA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau region this afternoon. ....Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Convection has thus far struggled to deepen and intensify across eastern NC into southeast VA. While some recent low-level veering has been noted in the KRAX VWP, wind profiles remain conditionally favorable for organized updrafts, if deep convection can be sustained. The Marginal Risk has been maintained to cover this conditional threat, which should begin to diminish by early evening. See MCD 1975 for more information regarding the threat in this area. ....Allegheny Plateau and vicinity... Convection has recently intensified from southwest PA into northern WV, where a pocket of stronger diurnal heating is supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Strong low-level flow will continue to support a damaging-wind threat with these storms, while cold temperatures aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support some hail potential as well. A weakening trend is expected later this afternoon as ongoing storms move into a cooler and more stable environment. ...Dean.. 11/27/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ ....Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Latest surface analysis shows a deep low over IL/IN, with an occluded front extending across OH then southward into the central Appalachians. A pre-frontal trough is developing over central NC. This trough may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Recent VADs and 12z CAM solutions show an intense mesoscale low-level jet (60-70 knots at 850mb) over central SC. This feature is associated with an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms east of CLT. As the wind max tracks northeastward, several model solutions suggest the potential for development of a few discrete storms over eastern NC and extreme southeast VA. It is unclear how much destabilization can occur prior to arrival of convection, which limits confidence in the severe threat. Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL risk and low tornado probabilities. However, very strong shear profiles and weak-but-perhaps-sufficient CAPE could result isolated supercells and a tornado or two before activity moves offshore. ....Northern WV/southwest PA... The cold front over OH/KY is expected to surge northeastward this afternoon across northern WV and southwest PA. Forecast soundings in this area show very weak CAPE, but strong winds aloft and strong forcing. There remains some potential for a small fast-moving bowing line of shallow convection posing a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this concern. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .