Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1975
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 27 2022 19:53:28

ACUS11 KWNS 271953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271952=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271952Z - 272215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado
may occur as thunderstorms race northeastward this afternoon. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A band of shallow convection has recently developed
along the NC/VA border to the northeast of Raleigh NC. Very strong
low-level wind fields, with 55-60+ kt of southerly flow at 850 mb
per recent mesoanalysis and KAKQ VWP estimates, are present ahead of
this band across northeastern NC and southeastern VA. Plentiful
low-level and deep-layer shear will support updraft organization
with any thunderstorm that can strengthen. Farther west, the VWP
from KRAX shows the low-level flow has veered to southwesterly,
which is limiting low-level shear across central NC.

The main limiting factor continues to be poor low/mid-level lapse
rates and related weak instability. While low-level moisture is
streaming northward ahead of the band of thunderstorms, it remains
uncertain if sufficient boundary-layer instability will be in place
this afternoon ahead of it to support truly surface-based
thunderstorms. Still, given the strength of the low-level flow,
isolated strong to damaging downdraft winds may occur as this
convection develops quickly northeastward across southeastern VA and
northeastern NC over the next few hours. If a thunderstorm can
become surface based, then a brief tornado may also occur, as
effective SRH is forecast to remain enhanced for a couple more hours
this afternoon, before gradually diminishing as the low-level flow
slowly veers to southwesterly and weakens. Overall, it still appears
the severe threat will remain rather isolated, and watch issuance is
unlikely at this time.

...Gleason/Hart.. 11/27/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!67N4qgduoom9jQkGwVEiY4fiDphnB-reYiMWc1FlccwQPqHVk4H1TGoM02WluvZ4-bOg-XoD7=
1M4yc2a55-i-vz9Cf8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36127825 36567781 36927741 37707644 37817582 37667553
            37297571 36937591 36657580 36347609 36037678 35927729
            35877791 35947827 36127825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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