Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 27 2022 16:29:24

ACUS01 KWNS 271629
SWODY1
SPC AC 271627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon.

....Eastern NC/Southeast VA...
Latest surface analysis shows a deep low over IL/IN, with an
occluded front extending across OH then southward into the central
Appalachians.  A pre-frontal trough is developing over central NC.
This trough may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon.

Recent VADs and 12z CAM solutions show an intense mesoscale
low-level jet (60-70 knots at 850mb) over central SC.  This feature
is associated with an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
east of CLT.  As the wind max tracks northeastward, several model
solutions suggest the potential for development of a few discrete
storms over eastern NC and extreme southeast VA.  It is unclear how
much destabilization can occur prior to arrival of convection, which
limits confidence in the severe threat.  Therefore will maintain
ongoing MRGL risk and low tornado probabilities.  However, very
strong shear profiles and weak-but-perhaps-sufficient CAPE could
result isolated supercells and a tornado or two before activity
moves offshore.

....Northern WV/southwest PA...
The cold front over OH/KY is expected to surge northeastward this
afternoon across northern WV and southwest PA.  Forecast soundings
in this area show very weak CAPE, but strong winds aloft and strong
forcing.  There remains some potential for a small fast-moving
bowing line of shallow convection posing a risk of gusty/damaging
wind gusts.  Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover
this concern.

...Hart/Wendt.. 11/27/2022

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.