Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 27 2022 02:31:19

ACUS11 KWNS 270231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270230=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Areas affected...far southern Alabama into the western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 571...

Valid 270230Z - 270430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 571 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated supercells persists across the
watch area.

DISCUSSION...A large cell has consolidated across Baldwin County AL
over the past hour, which is near the surface warm front. Radar
shows a broad area of low-level convergence, with an increase in
lightning activity as well. If the cell can propagate in more of an
eastward direction, it may be able to stay along the warm front with
direct access to surface-based unstable air. In such a case, 0-1 SRH
near 300 m2/s2 may support a tornado. Otherwise, the zone along the
warm front will continue to conditionally favor a localized
supercell/tornado threat this evening with any additional cells that
may strengthen as they move north off the Gulf of Mexico.

...Jewell.. 11/27/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ghwCSjCBcWStw-Sba0J4xasS02J6ueC4XiT00qhNv21SgfvI8SU5e9bERLHzpBSCAE_pLBnW=
DfxSZ_TQdsCE2nQemY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON   30318794 30658781 30938783 31048714 30888666 30548643
            30288661 30218734 30218766 30318794=20


=3D =3D =3D
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