Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 27 2022 01:01:21

FOUS30 KWBC 270101
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Nov 27 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 27 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

0100 UTC Update -- As with the earlier update at 2030Z, have
trimmed the back edges of the Marginal Risk area based on the
observational trends. Both satellite and radar presentation show a
healthy warm conveyor belt (WCB) -- with PW values topping 2"
along the central Gulf Coast. Optimal upper level difluence ahead
of the front, along with robust low-mid level moisture transport
(850-700 mb moisture flux anomalies of +4 or greater per the GEFS)
will make for a highly favorable environment for deep moisture
below the 0C isotherm (wet bulb zero levels >13kft) and thus
efficient warm rain processes. Instability is modest (MUCAPEs
500-1000 J/kg), however the transient nature of the pre-frontal
bands is the main limitation for a more enhanced ERO risk.
Therefore, the Marginal Risk will continue, supported by the
latest guidance trends (including HREF exceedance probabilities).

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 27 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 28 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 28 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 29 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman




Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hu_8JNIz9a14YhFCtBllUE-PLOWiM9LAviDJ0m-2Tpo=
GQB2FS5Ns5THs6F6m--4sPc-_dTrxAj8IQrgB6g-QScMRAQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hu_8JNIz9a14YhFCtBllUE-PLOWiM9LAviDJ0m-2Tpo=
GQB2FS5Ns5THs6F6m--4sPc-_dTrxAj8IQrgB6g-PgTInNo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hu_8JNIz9a14YhFCtBllUE-PLOWiM9LAviDJ0m-2Tpo=
GQB2FS5Ns5THs6F6m--4sPc-_dTrxAj8IQrgB6g-dCwllfY$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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