Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 26 2022 23:25:17

ACUS11 KWNS 262325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262324=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Areas affected...The Alabama...and Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262324Z - 270130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado threat may materialize this evening as a line of
storms moves along the coast within a warm frontal zone. This threat
will be conditional on sufficient inland advection of higher
low-level theta-e air; trends will be monitored for a possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations along the MS/AL/FL Gulf Coast show
predominantly mid to upper 60s ahead of an eastward-moving band of
convection. A few maritime observations show higher theta-e
low-level air (denoted by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) to the
south of an offshore warm front. Latest forecast sounding analysis
suggests that this higher-quality air is required to support robust
surface-based convection. Although onshore flow will generally
remain modest (15-20 knots) ahead of the band of convection, some
recent model solutions hint that the warm front may move onto the
north-central Gulf Coast during the 00-03 UTC period and support a
spatially limited warm sector along the immediate coast. Strong
low-level shear (500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) is noted in recent KMOB VWP
observations, which may support a few organized cells within the
convective band, though the modest thermodynamic profiles will
modulate the overall tornado threat.

...Moore/Thompson.. 11/26/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9HPw1_MxwfvuHlExN5al0rwf1FGXBhHucHvnsEKYIfdnZYyRLfVWlMGQwryMMBFTMhISHLYOM=
_3J9z2d-yGg-wU_SRg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30138803 30238837 30488843 30738829 30748794 30758754
            30788699 30758645 30598612 30358568 30198565 30108590
            30268634 30278681 30218736 30138803=20


=3D =3D =3D
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