Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 26 2022 20:30:47 FOUS30 KWBC 262030 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 Day 1 Valid 2028Z Sat Nov 26 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 27 2022 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....2030Z Special Update... The line of convective showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continues across southeastern LA & MS this afternoon. The convection embedded within the line has failed to produce rainfall rates much above 1 inch/hour for most places with only a few rates above 2 inches per hour right along the coast in largely unpopulated areas. Thus, have removed the Slight Risk altogether and continued trimming the Marginal Risk from the west to stay ahead of the line of convection. At this point the line is quite progressive so only isolated flash flooding is possible if a heavier storm happens over an area that is particularly sensitive to flooding in the Marginal Risk area. The convection has also largely failed to move very far inland without weakening, and so the Marginal Risk area over AL has been trimmed southward accordingly. Over the evening hours expect the convection to continue increasing in forward speed while rainfall outside of the main convection largely dissipates, per most of the 18Z CAMs guidance. This should further reduce the amount of time any one area picks up rainfall. Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 27 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 28 2022 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_stL9p2a_t0uEAWb4dXZv1AfWioYNX7p96MG0yNNMzd3= xkt7wHHMRZ4vLbMNYNUCaslYwtXX4s8FF0LRdTH-bkqKKHA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_stL9p2a_t0uEAWb4dXZv1AfWioYNX7p96MG0yNNMzd3= xkt7wHHMRZ4vLbMNYNUCaslYwtXX4s8FF0LRdTH-aJ1K9g8$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_stL9p2a_t0uEAWb4dXZv1AfWioYNX7p96MG0yNNMzd3= xkt7wHHMRZ4vLbMNYNUCaslYwtXX4s8FF0LRdTH-ivTzCmk$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .