Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 26 2022 19:57:47

ACUS01 KWNS 261957
SWODY1
SPC AC 261956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
There is a risk of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds this
afternoon through early tonight from southeast Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle.

....20Z Update...
Primary changes to the outlook are to adjust general thunderstorm
and severe probability areas for progression of the cold front. For
short-term details on the severe risk for southeastern Louisiana,
see MCD 1971.

...Wendt.. 11/26/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022/

....Central Gulf Coast...
A deep upper low is moving slowly eastward across TX today, with the
primary surface low just off the coast of southeast TX.  A warm
front extends eastward from the low just south of the LA coast.
Continued strong southerly low-level winds will help the warm front
to move slowly northward today, allowing a very moist air mass to
spread into the Delta region of southeast LA and coastal counties of
MS/AL and the FL Panhandle.

A persistent line of thunderstorms currently extending from the LCH
area southward into the Gulf is moving slowly eastward.  Several
supercell structures have been noted with this line overnight and
this morning, and the potential for rotating activity will continue
through the afternoon and evening.  Low-level shear profiles are
quite strong, especially in vicinity of the surface warm front.
Most of the severe threat should remain offshore.  However, CAM
guidance suggests a narrow zone where surface-based supercells and
an attendant risk of tornadoes/damaging wind gusts may threaten
coastal counties/parishes this afternoon through early tonight.
Therefore have added a SLGT risk for this area.

$$

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