Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 26 2022 06:38:14 ACUS02 KWNS 260638 SWODY2 SPC AC 260636 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat currently appears low on Sunday. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered near the mid-MS Valley is forecast to evolve into a negatively tilted shortwave trough as it ejects quickly northeastward on Sunday, moving offshore of New England by early Monday morning. A surface cyclone is forecast to move across parts of the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes during the day and then move across New England Sunday night, as an attendant cold front sweeps through much of the eastern CONUS by early Monday morning. ...FL Panhandle northward into the Carolinas... Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA and southeast AL, with widespread precipitation farther north into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. Strong deep-layer wind fields will support organized convection, and a few strong storms will be possible early in the day across parts of GA and north FL. However, with generally weak buoyancy and a tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to move quickly northeastward away from the region, a general weakening trend is expected through the morning hours. Richer low-level moisture may spread into the Carolinas by afternoon, with wind profiles remaining conditionally favorable for organized convection. However, weak diurnal heating and poor midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, which should tend to limit the potential for sustained deep convection in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. At this time, confidence in sustained organized convection remains low, but low severe probabilities may eventually be needed across some part of the Southeast and/or Carolinas, depending on shorter-term observational and guidance trends. ....Ohio Valley and vicinity... In the wake of widespread morning precipitation, low-topped convection may develop in the vicinity of the ejecting shortwave trough on Sunday afternoon across parts of the OH Valley. At this time, buoyancy guidance ranges from very weak to nil, but with favorable ascent associated with the shortwave trough and strong low-level wind fields, even relatively weak low-topped convection may be able to produce some convectively enhanced gusts. If confidence increases regarding the potential for sufficiently robust/sustained convection during the afternoon, wind probabilities may eventually be needed across some part of the region. ...Dean.. 11/26/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .