Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 26 2022 07:20:01 AWUS01 KWNH 260719 FFGMPD TXZ000-261330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 219 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022 Areas affected...central through southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260730Z - 261330Z Summary...Convection continues to deepen and intensify from central through southeast Texas. The orientation of convective cells/bands across the discussion area should promote heavy rainfall and increasing flash flood potential through 13Z. Discussion...An increase in convective coverage and intensity has been noted across much of central through southeast Texas over the past couple of hours in response to 1) subtle ascent due to shortwaves moving through flow aloft on the eastern side of a closed low over southwest Texas and 2) increasing low-level flow/convergence, with southeasterly 850mb flow now exceeding 30 knots between Austin and Houston. Both radar mosaic imagery and satellite imagery have responded to the convective increase, with scattered thunderstorms moving northward amid deep southerly flow in the mid-levels from the Big Country eastward through the Houston Metro. Storms have been scattered and progressive enough to keep rain rates generally in check, although a few spots of 1 inch/hr rates have materialized between Austin and San Antonio and also just east of Corpus Christi over the last 1-2 hours. These rates are not enough to cause larger-scale flash-flood issues in the short term. Over time, the mid-level wave over southwest Texas will begin to slowly eject eastward, resulting in a strengthening of low-level flow across much of east Texas. That flow will result in at least elevated instability and stronger convergence, with a more focused, NNW/SSE oriented band of storms materializing generally along and west of the I-45 corridor between 10-12Z. Widespread areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals are expected, with localized training expected to boost totals into the 4 inch range.=20 Furthermore, surface-based instability should begin to develop inland across the middle Texas coast in that time frame, with somewhat higher totals (2-3 inches) potentially materializing there as a result. 1.5-3 inch/hr FFG thresholds should be eclipsed at times especially beneath training convection. Thus, the overall flash flood risk should generally increase with time 1) especially after about 09Z and 2) especially near coastal areas between Victoria and Houston. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9y7u9KhOiqU40VU0yOzCSoRv4bNGd1ahHx46lzi8QWkiU2zu2xZh1G3f0wsNjoucbyFR= TKCOmhfi5M2ZTegBFI3BP3Y$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32509692 32309623 31609534 30689439 29929393=20 29449415 29009494 28459567 28119615 28119667=20 28509699 29019696 29919703 31099731 32049741=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .