Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 19:48:40 ACUS01 KWNS 251948 SWODY1 SPC AC 251946 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur tonight along parts of the Texas Coast. ....20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk along parts of the TX Coast. The development of sufficient instability to support truly surface-based thunderstorms still appears questionable over land. But, a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may still occur late tonight, mainly after 06Z, as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to spread inland across this region. ...Gleason.. 11/25/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022/ ....Texas Coast... A large upper low is currently centered near El Paso, with strong westerly flow aloft extending across northern Mexico. At the surface, a weak low is analyzed just off the coast of south TX, with a warm front extending eastward into the Gulf. Continued low-level warm advection and lift will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms today near and north of the warm front - spreading inland through the day. Thunderstorms that form in this regime will be elevated with minimal risk of severe weather. Later tonight, the surface low is forecast to be very near the coastline with the warm front lifting northward to the immediate coast as well. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will rotate around the base of the low and approach south TX. This should result in increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms after midnight. Those storms near the low/warm front will potentially be surface-based and in a region of strong low-level shear. A few transient supercells may occur with a marginal risk of a tornado or severe wind gusts. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .