Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1970
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 18:50:39

ACUS11 KWNS 251850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of
western Texas

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 251850Z - 252245Z

SUMMARY...A developing band of heavy snow may produce accumulating
rates of 1-2+ inches per hour through 1-4 PM MST, in a corridor
across southeast New Mexico, from near Carlsbad to Hobbs, and
adjacent portions of west Texas.

DISCUSSION...To the north-northeast of a mid-level low, only very
slowly beginning to turn eastward across northern Chihuahua, Rapid
Refresh depicts a corridor of strengthening mid-level convergence,
warm advection and frontogenesis slowly shifting across southeastern
New Mexico and adjacent portions of west Texas through 20-23Z.=20
Associated forcing for ascent appears likely to support another
intensifying band of precipitation, and include strengthening lift
in the favorable zone for large dendritic ice crystal growth.  Aided
by precipitable water on the order of .5-.6 inches, forecast
soundings exhibit thermodynamic profiles conducive to sustained 1-2+
inch per hour snow rates.  Although surface temperatures may still
be in the mid 30s F in some locations along this corridor, initial
melting and evaporation of heavy snow will contribute to cooling,
and rates will likely be heavy enough to support a period of rapidly
accumulating snow.

...Kerr.. 11/25/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!--HbABxkKY1P-FA4gkJRyDb7voj95p1PNIyEVy29aeedXYSevXcQUKvmQLbCzn2DUMsE14eIH=
EM8U8DwoNxp1xeoER0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31910431 32400420 33150349 33540299 33220239 31780353
            31910431=20


=3D =3D =3D
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