Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 17:32:09 ACUS02 KWNS 251732 SWODY2 SPC AC 251730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from far southeast Texas to parts of the the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should be the main threats. ....Far Southeast Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... A vigorous closed upper low will translate east-northeastward from the southern High Plains to the mid MS Valley on Saturday. A strong (70-90 kt) mid-level jet will accompany this upper low. At the surface, a low over east TX Saturday morning should develop east-northeastward in tandem with the upper low. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to advance inland as a surface warm front lifts northward over the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front attendant to the surface low will sweep eastward across this region through the period. Poor lapse rates and limited daytime heating are expected to generally hinder the development of much instability through the day. Still, some potential for surface-based convection remains evident, especially where upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are present. Currently, this appears most likely across southern LA/MS/AL and into parts of the FL Panhandle. The best forcing for ascent aloft associated with the upper low and mid-level jet is forecast to generally remain displaced to the north of this area, towards the mid MS Valley. But, sufficiently strong deep-layer shear should be present to support organized updrafts, including the potential for a couple of low-topped supercells. The strongest portion of a southerly low-level jet should also be mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, enough low-level shear should exist for some low-level updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated damaging winds may also occur as convection spreads eastward across the central Gulf Coast states through Saturday night. Given that instability is forecast to remain rather weak, have maintained the Marginal Risk with some expansion. ...Gleason.. 11/25/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .