Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 16:07:07

ACUS01 KWNS 251607
SWODY1
SPC AC 251605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur tonight near parts
of the Texas Coast.

....Texas Coast...
A large upper low is currently centered near El Paso, with strong
westerly flow aloft extending across northern Mexico.  At the
surface, a weak low is analyzed just off the coast of south TX, with
a warm front extending eastward into the Gulf.  Continued low-level
warm advection and lift will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms today near and north of the warm front - spreading
inland through the day.  Thunderstorms that form in this regime will
be elevated with minimal risk of severe weather.

Later tonight, the surface low is forecast to be very near the
coastline with the warm front lifting northward to the immediate
coast as well.  Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will rotate around the
base of the low and approach south TX.  This should result in
increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms after midnight.
Those storms near the low/warm front will potentially be
surface-based and in a region of strong low-level shear.  A few
transient supercells may occur with a marginal risk of a tornado or
severe wind gusts.

...Hart/Wendt.. 11/25/2022

$$

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