Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 08:33:06

ACUS48 KWNS 250833
SWOD48
SPC AC 250831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to show a potent large-scale trough
digging south across the western U.S. on Day 4/Mon, and ejecting
eastward across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Day 5/Tue. As
this occurs, strong southerly low-level flow will develop across
eastern parts of southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley in response
to strengthening cyclogenesis over the central/southern Plains. This
will transport unseasonably rich Gulf moisture northward across
eastern OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley beneath intense vertical
shear.

Details continue to shift with regards to the north and east extent
of quality boundary-layer moisture return, and in how far east a
surface cold front will surge by Day 6/Wed morning. However,
agreement between deterministic, ensemble and machine-learning
guidance supports greater than average confidence that a corridor of
severe potential will exist from eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley
on Day 5/Tue. Furthermore, a corridor of enhanced severe potential
appears likely within the broader risk area across the ArkLaMiss
vicinity. While confidence is high that severe potential will exist
on Day 5/Tue, the area delineated may continue to shift some in the
coming days, depending on trends in system amplitude and within
forecast guidance.

Forecast guidance varies quite a bit moving into Day 6/Wed regarding
the extent of the warm sector across the central Gulf coast
vicinity. Some severe potential may continue into parts of
MS/AL/GA/FL, but confidence remains low regarding intensity and
coverage, precluding unconditional severe probabilities at this
time.

By Day 7/Thu, strong surface high pressure across the eastern U.S.
will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, and severe
potential will be low. Medium range guidance then depicts another
large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. shifting east toward
the Rockies/Plains, supporting another surge of Gulf return flow
across the south-central U.S. Severe thunderstorm potential is
uncertain on Day 8/Fri, but could increase late in the period into
next weekend.

...Leitman.. 11/25/2022

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