Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 05:33:36

ACUS01 KWNS 250533
SWODY1
SPC AC 250532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday night
through early Saturday morning along/near parts of the Texas Coast.

....TX Coast...

Mid-level speed max is digging south across AZ into northern Mexico
late this evening. Stronger flow will round the base of the trough
and translate into TX late in the period. This evolution will result
in the upper low ejecting into west TX Friday evening. In response
to this feature, a surface wave will amplify off the lower TX Coast
with a weak surface low expected to advance a bit inland across the
upper TX Coastal Plain late. With large-scale forcing expected to
remain well west of this region, boundary-layer air mass will
struggle to destabilize appreciably inland. Forecast soundings
suggest weak near-surface-based buoyancy is possible along the
immediate coast, but only where dew points are able to rise into the
upper 60s. Strong wind profiles support the possibility for
supercells where modified Gulf air mass does return. Isolated
damaging winds, or perhaps a brief tornado, are the primary threats.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 11/25/2022

$$

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