Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 25 2022 05:19:33 ACUS02 KWNS 250519 SWODY2 SPC AC 250518 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the central Gulf coast states. Locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity. ....Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low over the southern High Plains will shift east/northeast to the Mid-MS Valley on Saturday. This will bring a belt of intense southwesterly deep-layer flow across the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity. At the surface, a weak low is forecast over east TX Saturday morning, with a cold front extending southward to the Middle TX coast and offshore into the western Gulf of Mexico. A warm front will extend eastward near the upper TX coast to just offshore the central Gulf Coast. The surface low is expected to deepen modestly as it shifts northeast through the period, while the cold front surges east and the warm front lifts northward across southern LA/MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Rich gulf moisture will spread north and east during the late morning/early afternoon into the overnight hours. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F are forecast across southeast LA into far southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, with dewpoints near 60 F as far north as northern MS/AL. Destabilization will be limited by ongoing showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal boundaries, widespread cloud cover resulting in poor daytime heating, and weak lapse rates. Where dewpoints climb into the upper 60s to near 70 F, MLCAPE values as high as 750 J/kg are possible, with lower values with northward extent. Cool boundary-layer temperatures will generally result in at least weak inhibition, which should be overcome by strong ascent across the Marginal risk area. With northward extent, low-level inhibition will be stronger on the cool side of the warm front, and convection will likely remain elevated across central/northern MS/AL. While instability will be modest, strong vertical shear will be in place, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt supporting organized convection. Forecast soundings show vertically veering wind profiles, with enlarged low-level hodograph becoming elongated above 2-3 km. Furthermore, SRH values greater than 200 m2/s2 are forecast with increasing low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the surface boundaries. As a result, rotating storms may produce locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two. The tornado threat will be maximized where surface dewpoints are able to climb into the upper 60s to near 70 F, mainly from southeast LA into far southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. ...Leitman.. 11/25/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .