Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1969
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 21:21:08

ACUS11 KWNS 242120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242120=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast including southern Houston
Metro/Galveston

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242120Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal severe risk continues. Isolated transient
supercells possible. A watch is unlikely to be issued.

DISCUSSION...Surface objective analysis shows a narrow corridor of
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg across the Upper Texas Coast that is
slowly retreating southward as a diffuse front slowly sags
southward. Wind profiles from the radar at KHGX (Houston/Galveston)
show 30-40 kts of 0-3 km shear (0-3 km SRH around 200 m2/s2). Winds
at the surface are backed and easterly just along and east of
Houston/Galveston. Winds to the west have been quickly switching to
the southwest with winds aloft from KHGX gradually veering in the
lowest 1-2 km over the last hour. Overall, a few transient
supercells could display weak rotation in a narrow corridor along
the Upper Texas Coast over the next hour or so. Conditions will
continue to become less favorable and more stable with time limiting
the severe risk. Due to the small spatial extent and duration, a
watch is unlikely to be issued.

...Thornton/Kerr.. 11/24/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8K92u2YS1r0o3axn1wjcJZRZY3rxTMX8VII7Nfy9pW7ecAwGwIn1AeSq8GoYSHL4gw4L6PpxP=
fE1L_Od_8ALAwfPj0w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30099553 30289539 30409514 30439454 30419408 30419356
            30359332 30209304 30059297 29829304 29739310 29609325
            29519357 29469389 29429414 29369430 29339466 29349496
            29359507 29389526 29519543 29649555 29909563 30099553=20


=3D =3D =3D
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