Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 17:31:31

ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly
Friday night through early Saturday morning along/near parts of the
Texas Coast.

....Texas Coast...
A large, closed upper low centered over far west TX and adjacent
northern Mexico Friday morning should develop slowly eastward across
TX through the period. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain
confined off the TX Coast during the day, with mainly elevated
thunderstorms occurring over much of central/east TX in a low-level
warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper low
should eventually encourage a weak surface low to develop along the
middle TX Coast around Friday evening, and subsequently move
northward into parts of east TX Friday night into early Saturday
morning.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the track and
strength of this surface low, and the quality of low-level moisture
return ahead of it along/near the middle/upper TX Coast. In
particular, the latest extended run (15Z) of the RAP seems most
aggressive in advancing upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints
inland across this region, mainly after 03Z Friday evening. If
sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland to support
surface-based convection, then increasing low-level shear associated
with a southerly low-level jet may support a non-zero risk for a
tornado or two, along with isolated damaging winds. Strong
deep-layer shear also appears more than sufficient for supercells.
Have opted to add low severe probabilities for a narrow portion of
the TX Coast region in the event adequate low-level moisture does
advance slightly inland.

...Gleason.. 11/24/2022

$$

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