Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 12:45:00 ACUS01 KWNS 241244 SWODY1 SPC AC 241243 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHERN LA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the western Gulf Coast States through tonight. The primary threats from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana will be a tornado or two and locally damaging winds. Severe hail should be the main hazard in central Texas. ....TX/LA... A digging shortwave trough centered over NM will continue to move south, reaching Chihuahua tonight. This will result in a minor surface frontal wave over northwest TX becoming centered over central TX this afternoon. Closer to the coast, an effective surface warm front will attempt to progress inland across far southeast TX and southern LA through tonight. A well-advertised plume of elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, is ongoing from central TX to the Arklatex. A separate area of isolated showers is apparent near the mid to upper TX coast. Both regimes will likely merge into a broadening convective plume by this afternoon across southeast/east TX into western LA. With poor low-level lapse rates and convective development driven by warm advection, sustained thunderstorms should largely maintain an elevated character along and north of the warm front. ARW-based CAMs (HRW-ARW/NSSL and HRRR) are insistent on organized updrafts, per 2-5 km UH signals, this afternoon into tonight, likely owing to robust southwesterly speed shear with height above 850 mb. This could support development of a slightly elevated, eastward-moving cluster near the surface warm front from southeast TX across southern LA, with potential for discrete cells near/ahead of the cluster. Based on the 12Z observed Corpus Christi sounding and forecast soundings, surface dew points near 70 F will probably be necessary for a conditional tornado threat, which will likely be confined to along the immediate coast. Sporadic swaths of locally damaging winds from strong to marginally severe gusts along with a tornado or two are the most likely hazards. Farther west into central TX, guidance suggests boundary-layer heating will be limited. But with a persistent upstream source of steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12Z Del Rio sounding) atop the northwest periphery of the western Gulf low-level moisture plume, regenerative thunderstorm development is expected through the period. Robust speed shear within the modest CAPE layer will offer a threat for isolated severe hail in the strongest updrafts. ...Grams/Dean.. 11/24/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .