Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 08:27:04

ACUS48 KWNS 240826
SWOD48
SPC AC 240825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A shortwave upper trough over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys Day 4/Sun
morning will quickly lift northeast toward New England by Sunday
night. Another weaker shortwave trough will quickly move across the
Midwest behind the initial wave. This will maintain strong
southwesterly deep-layer flow across the eastern U.S. At the
surface, a cold front will track east of the Appalachians, with a
modest warm sector spreading northward from FL/GA through the
eastern Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Widespread cloud
cover and ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms will limit
instability across the warm sector and severe potential appears low
at this time across the eastern Carolinas/southeast VA.

By Day 5/Monday, a strong upper trough is expected to dig southward
across the western U.S. and eject eastward into the Plains on Day
6/Tue. Forecast guidance has trended a bit faster with the eastward
progression of the upper trough, as well as with the
east/southeastward surging cold front. Nevertheless, the overall
pattern remains favorable for severe thunderstorms from southeast
OK/eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley Tuesday into early Day
7/Wednesday. Strong Gulf moisture return is expected across eastern
portions of OK/TX into parts of AR/LA/MS. Intense vertical shear
will overlap with this unseasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of
the surging cold front, supporting conditions favorable for damaging
gusts and tornadoes. The 15 percent severe thunderstorm area has
shifted south and east compared to yesterday to reflect latest
trends in deterministic, ensemble and machine learning guidance.

Some severe potential could continue into Day 7/Wed across parts of
the Gulf Coast states/Southeast. However, uncertainty is greater as
severe potential will partially depend on how far east convection
progresses during the Day 6/Tue period. Additionally, stronger
forcing for ascent will be lifting northeast of the region as the
upper trough pivots northeast across the Midwest.

...Leitman.. 11/24/2022

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