Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 07:27:00 ACUS03 KWNS 240726 SWODY3 SPC AC 240726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Thu Nov 24 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours across parts of the central Gulf coast states. Locally strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity. ....Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low over the southern Plains will eject northeast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong southwesterly deep-layer flow over the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast/Mid-South vicinity. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, with a low tracking from the Texoma vicinity to the Mid-MS Valley. A cold front will migrate eastward across the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf coast states Saturday and Saturday night. A warm front initially offshore the coast will lift northward during the afternoon and evening, and mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast LA into far southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Widespread precipitation with isolated thunderstorms is expected in this strong warm advection regime. This activity will be ongoing Saturday morning near the Sabine River, shifting east/northeast with time. As deeper boundary-layer moisture moves inland over the coastal vicinity, modest destabilization is expected, though limited heating due to widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, along with poor mid/low-level lapse rates, will temper instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE forecast). While instability will remain modest, strong vertical shear will be in place across the region, with forecast effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt resulting in organized convection. Enlarged low-level hodographs, and SRH values greater than 200 m2/s2 indicate some conditional threat for a tornado or two where upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints occur (aiding in at least meager low-level instability). Otherwise, sporadic strong gusts will be possible. The severe threat should diminish with northward extent as convection becomes elevated north of the warm front. ...Leitman.. 11/24/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .