Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 24 2022 00:53:59

ACUS01 KWNS 240053
SWODY1
SPC AC 240052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper
trough digging south across the Rockies. An upper low should evolve
over NM by the end of the period as 80+kt 500mb jet translates into
AZ. While appreciable mid-level height falls will spread across the
southern Rockies through sunrise, LLJ will focus across
north-central TX into western AR. Low-level warm advection will
likely be the primary mechanism for generating elevated convection
tonight, especially as PW values increase across this region. 00z
sounding from FWD exhibited adequate MUCAPE (700 J/kg), if lifting a
parcel from 850mb, for upright convection capable of generating
lightning. Over the last hour or so several lightning flashes have
developed with convection approaching the Metroplex. This activity
will spread northeast with a continued risk for lightning.

...Darrow.. 11/24/2022

$$

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