Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 17:31:26

ACUS02 KWNS 231731
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday from southeast
Texas into southwest Louisiana. Locally damaging wind gusts are most
likely.

....Discussion...
Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over much of northeast TX
into AR in a warm advection regime where the 850 mb will be over 30
kt. A few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE may support a few stronger
cores but severe hail is unlikely.

Farther south, a quasi-stationary front will extend from southeast
TX toward coastal LA, while the cold front remains far to the west.
Upper 60s F dewpoints will exist south of the boundary, resulting in
favorable SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg.

As the upper low drops south across NM and into Far West TX,
moderate southwest flow aloft will result in long hodographs across
TX and LA. Low-level shear is expected to weaken throughout the day,
with 850 winds becoming less than 15-20 kts during the afternoon.
However, as early day storms interact along the east-west boundary,
localized severe weather may occur as lift and shear will be
maximized along it. A weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out along
the boundary.

A few showers may occur overnight across southern LA as well, with
any surface-based activity likely south of I-10. However, models do
not suggest much storm strength at that time with relatively weak
warm advection profiles.

...Jewell.. 11/23/2022

$$

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