Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 16:21:00 ACUS01 KWNS 231620 SWODY1 SPC AC 231619 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ....Synopsis... Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that there will be further amplification within the flow across western North America through this period. This likely will include building mid-level ridging across and inland of the U.S./British Columbia Pacific coast, and digging mid-level troughing within split downstream branches near and east of the Rockies. It still appears that the more amplified of these perturbations will evolve in the southern branch, and include a developing mid-level low near the Colorado into New Mexico Rockies later today through tonight. Farther downstream, as a deep mid-level low continues to form while redeveloping across and southeast of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that the persistent confluent mid-level regime across the eastern U.S. may become more focused across and just east of the Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging will be maintained and reinforced across the Atlantic Seaboard. As some erosion of this ridging commences across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that more prominent surface ridging, developing across the Intermountain West and Rockies, will begin to build into the Great Plains. And, surface cyclogenesis will remain suppressed within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ....Southern Great Plains vicinity... On the southwestern periphery of the eastern surface ridging, modest low-level moisture return is already underway across and north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. A gradual moistening likely will continue within a narrow plume on the eastern periphery of a low-level jet (roughly 30+ kt around 850 mb), north-northeastward toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak Thursday. However, this is occurring above an initially cold/stable surface-based layer. While there probably will be some modification of this air mass today through tonight, low cloud cover and precipitation will contribute to the maintenance of a substantive low-level/near-surface inversion layer across most areas north of the middle Texas coastal plain. Weak boundary-layer destabilization appears possible overnight across the coastal plain, but this seems likely to remain capped beneath warming layers aloft. North of a College Station/Temple line into areas near/northwest of the Ark-La-Tex, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to support increasing thunderstorm development late this evening into the overnight hours. Modest to weak elevated instability and shear (within the relevant potential convective layer) likely will minimize the risk for severe weather. ...Kerr/Thornton.. 11/23/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .