Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 12:27:25

ACUS01 KWNS 231227
SWODY1
SPC AC 231225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....South-Central States...
A shortwave trough centered over the northern Rockies will dig
southward across the Four Corners area through 12Z Thursday. In
response, low-level warm theta-e advection will intensify over the
southern Great Plains. This will yield weak elevated buoyancy
developing by this evening. Initial thunderstorm development is
expected tonight across central to north-central TX, expanding north
and east in areal extent while also becoming widespread in coverage
as the warm conveyor belt slowly shifts east overnight. While there
should be an adequate combination of effective speed shear amid
southwest flow and some steepness to mid-level lapse rates, weaker
upper-level lapse rates along with quick updraft absorption into the
broader convective cluster should temper hail magnitudes. Small hail
appears to be the most likely possibility, especially with updrafts
along the southern periphery of sustained thunderstorm development
in central to east-central TX.

...Grams.. 11/23/2022

$$

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