Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 08:09:26

FOUS30 KWBC 230809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 23 2022 - 12Z Thu Nov 24 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 24 2022 - 12Z Fri Nov 25 2022

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A widespread multi day heavy precipitation event developing late
day 1 and continuing into the day 2 and 3 periods ahead of the
developing closed low sinking south through the Southern Rockies
into the Southern High Plains at the beginning of the day 2 time
period.  There are some timing differences after this with the
southeastward push of the closed low day 2 into the Southern High
Plains with the GFS on the more progressive side compared to the
EC, NAM and UKMET.  Despite the differences, models agree that low
level flow off the western Gulf will continue to strengthen from
the south and then south southwest on day 2, spreading anomalous
PW values...2 to 2.5+ standard deviations above the mean across
the risk areas. This will support the first round of heavy rains
spreading east northeastward Thursday into Thursday night from
East Texas into the Lower MS Valley.   Overall, there is good
agreement on this but with both timing differences with the
downstream push of the convection and differences with the
latitude of the heaviest totals.  With respect to the latitude of
the heaviest amounts, consensus is to favor the more southern max
qpf axes solutions which would fit better with the farther south
axis of instability and position of the west to east oriented
frontal boundary expected to strengthen along the Gulf coast from
the Upper TX coast, eastward along the LA coast.  This would be
closer to the farther south qpf axes of the FV3LAM, EC and UKMET.=20
Timing of the downstream push of convection is less certain.=20=20
Overall, however, there will be potential for training of cells in
a general west southwesterly to east northeasterly direction
across the risk area with totals in excess of 5"+ in areas of
training.  The previous slight risk area was trimmed on the north
end to reflect favoring the farther south qpf solutions.  The
slight risk was expanded farther to the southeast on the south end
to cover southeast LA and far southern MS as the EC, EC mean and
NAM all suggest a potential axis across these area.

Oravec

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FFKrarwe0kkl1So8ccFhmA-LPHmHdS0fEKnSTEDcxa6=
jEdGTbL9500CQZ6C-YGHfJDDwtuVHgnMZEwhhS83Pm9yIVU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FFKrarwe0kkl1So8ccFhmA-LPHmHdS0fEKnSTEDcxa6=
jEdGTbL9500CQZ6C-YGHfJDDwtuVHgnMZEwhhS83fJ4jwAg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_FFKrarwe0kkl1So8ccFhmA-LPHmHdS0fEKnSTEDcxa6=
jEdGTbL9500CQZ6C-YGHfJDDwtuVHgnMZEwhhS838fjfFKc$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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