Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 07:45:20

ACUS03 KWNS 230745
SWODY3
SPC AC 230744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Wed Nov 23 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday and Friday night.

....Lower MS Valley vicinity...

An upper low will pivot east across TX on Friday. This will bring a
band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across TX into the
Lower MS Valley. Some uncertainty remains with regards to surface
cyclogenesis. However, most medium range guidance suggests
cyclogenesis will be rather weak, with a low shifting east into AR
or LA by late Fri/early Sat. A surface cold front will shift east
across east TX into western LA, while a warm front extends southeast
from eastern LA to the MS/AL coastal vicinity overnight. A narrow
wedge of a warm sector with mid 60s F dewpoints is possible across
parts of LA and far southern MS during the overnight hours. However,
temperatures will remain rather cool and midlevel lapse rates poor.
Additionally, periods of showers and thunderstorms will further
inhibit inland destabilization. While moderate to strong vertical
shear will overspread the Lower MS Valley vicinity, poor
thermodynamics and low-level inhibition will likely limit severe
potential. A couple of strong storms may be possible across parts of
LA/southern MS Friday night, but overall potential appear too
marginal/conditional to introduce probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 11/23/2022

$$

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