Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 23 2022 05:10:53 ACUS02 KWNS 230510 SWODY2 SPC AC 230508 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 22 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast vicinity into southwest Louisiana. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ....Middle and Upper TX Coast/Southeast TX/Southwest LA... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the northern Plains to the southern Rockies early Thursday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with the eastward evolution of the southern branch of the trough over the southern Plains. Guidance has generally trended toward a cut-off upper low developing over the southern High Plains, and only shifting slightly eastward by Friday morning, though the deterministic GFS in particular is now maintaining an open wave and somewhat more progressive trough compared to earlier runs. Nevertheless, ensemble guidance still is indicating preference toward a cut-off upper low developing, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow over southern/eastern TX and the lower MS Valley vicinity. At the surface, a trough will extend from western OK into central TX, while a cold front shifts southeast across TX/OK/AR through the period. Uncertainty still remains regarding surface cyclogenesis across TX into the central Gulf coast. The expectation is that only modest surface cyclogenesis will occur, limiting rich boundary-layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the Middle/Upper TX Coasts/southeast TX and coastal Louisiana. While the surface cold front shifts southeast through the period, a warm front is expected to remain just offshore from the LA coast. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning, limiting destabilization despite mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front as forcing for ascent increases. Low-level winds will remain modest, generally less than 25 kt through around 3km. However, vertically veering wind profiles, with moderate to strong mid/upper level flow will support 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This will aid in updraft organization, though longevity/intensity of organized cells may be tempered by poor thermodynamics. As a result, will maintain a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk primarily for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. ...Leitman.. 11/23/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .