Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 22 2022 17:28:19

ACUS02 KWNS 221728
SWODY2
SPC AC 221726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely on Wednesday. General
thunderstorms are likely from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas overnight.

....Discussion...
A surface high will remain over the eastern CONUS with winds
gradually veering to easterly over the Gulf of Mexico. Modest
surface moisture return will occur Wednesday night across southeast
TX, as surface pressures lower ahead of an upper low dropping south
across CO and NM. Meanwhile, a cold front will surge south across
the central and southern High Plains in advance of the upper low,
well west of the developing moist plume.

Moistening just above the surface will occur from eastern TX into AR
as southwesterly 850 mb winds average 30-40 kt. Lift from warm
advection will lead to scattered showers, with thunderstorms
expected Wednesday night after about 05Z.

Forecast soundings show elevated instability up to 500 J/kg
developing from central and northern TX into southeast OK,
suggesting little if any severe hail threat given only modest
effective-layer shear and midlevel lapse rates near 6.5 C/km.

...Jewell.. 11/22/2022

$$

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