Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 22 2022 08:38:57

ACUS48 KWNS 220838
SWOD48
SPC AC 220836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper low over the southern Plains on Day 4/Fri will shift
east/northeast through the weekend, moving offshore the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast on Day 6/Sun. At the same time, a
surface low will develop north/northeast from the Ozarks toward the
Great Lakes, while a cold front shifts east across the Gulf Coast
states. While Gulf moisture will spread northward across the Lower
MS Valley and central Gulf Coast vicinity, severe potential appears
limited at this time. Widespread precipitation and cloud cover will
inhibit destabilization across the region, while stronger forcing
for ascent becomes increasingly displaced to the northeast as the
upper low ejects toward the Ohio Valley through Day 5/Sat. A couple
of strong thunderstorms could occur across the central Gulf Coast
vicinity Days 4-5/Fri-Sat, but overall severe potential appears
marginal/sub-15 percent at this time.

Medium range guidance indicates that a progressive upper pattern
will continue into Day 7-8/Mon-Tue and beyond, with another
large-scale upper trough ejecting eastward into the Plains around
Day 8/Tue. While there is quite a bit of spread among various
guidance, severe potential could increase by the end of the forecast
period or just beyond across portions of the central U.S.

...Leitman.. 11/22/2022

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.