Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 22 2022 07:47:34

FOUS30 KWBC 220747
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2022

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Nov 22 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...

The axis of above average PW values..2+ standard deviations above
the mean...will persist across central Florida day 1.  Onshore
easterly to east southeasterly low level flow expected to persist
in this high PW...supporting an area of defined boundary layer
convergence along the east central Florida coast day 1, with
continued potential for showers and isolated heavy totals.  The
0000 UTC hi res guidance has trended mostly offshore for day 1
with any heavy precip potential.  However, several of the global
models (GFS, EC, CMC) along with a few of the latest hrrr runs
show continued potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts.=20
Confidence is not great with respect to where heaviest totals will
occur, but there is potential for slow moving or nearly stationary
cells along the east central coastal sections of Florida that may
produce isolated runoff issues, especially over more urbanized
regions.  With respect to changes to the previous outlook for this
period, the north side was trimmed south out of JAX WFO to the
northern border of WFO MLB.  The southern portion was extended
slightly farther to the south to the southern border of WFO MLB.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9e3uGSx5BqMYKqXI5WaNUVlzBfC0e-Lk_cRkYKlEcGoo=
8Z3oRRhkSMuEycIbV4Fh5ywgKsKFDY1woTA7iSGTW6HQ9yc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9e3uGSx5BqMYKqXI5WaNUVlzBfC0e-Lk_cRkYKlEcGoo=
8Z3oRRhkSMuEycIbV4Fh5ywgKsKFDY1woTA7iSGTSIfxzdQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9e3uGSx5BqMYKqXI5WaNUVlzBfC0e-Lk_cRkYKlEcGoo=
8Z3oRRhkSMuEycIbV4Fh5ywgKsKFDY1woTA7iSGTY5M0OoA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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