Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 22 2022 07:08:15

ACUS03 KWNS 220708
SWODY3
SPC AC 220707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast
vicinity.

....Middle/Upper TX Coast vicinity...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Midwest to the southern Rockies Thursday morning. An upper low in
the southern branch of the trough is forecast to become increasingly
cut-off from the northern branch of the upper trough. The cut-off
upper low will only slowly develop east toward the southern Plains
through early Friday morning.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty not only with the
evolution of the upper low, but also with regards to a developing
surface low/trough over the east TX vicinity. The development and
track of the surface low will determine how far inland deeper Gulf
moisture is able to advance, and where a warm front will reside. At
this time, it appears deeper boundary-layer moisture will be
confined to the TX coast vicinity, with a narrow corridor of mid 60s
F surface dewpoints possible. Forecast soundings indicate weak
instability across the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity,
tempered by modest midlevel lapse rates and only weak diurnal
heating due to cloud cover and likely ongoing showers/thunderstorms
through the morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this
warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold
front during the afternoon/evening. Modest vertical shear may
support at least transient organized updrafts, and a couple of
strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible near the middle/upper
TX coast.

...Leitman.. 11/22/2022

$$

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