Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 22 2022 00:15:29

FOUS30 KWBC 220015
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Nov 22 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley
=20
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022 - 12Z Wed Nov 23 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

....2030z Update...

Very little change to the inherited outlook, mainly to expand the
Marginal Risk area inland a bit to account for the updated (12z)
HREF guidance. The expanded MRGL reflects the HREF probability
matched mean (PMM) QPF footprint for localized totals of 2"+ (also
where 2" over 3-hr neighborhood exceedance probabilities range
from 20-40%).

Churchill

....Previous Discussion...

The favorable pattern for heavy rainfall along coastal sections of
east central Florida will continue for at least the first half of
the upcoming day 2 period before the onshore flow weakens during
the second half.  Prior to the weakening of the onshore flow, well
defined boundary layer convergence expected to persist into east
central to northeast Florida where low level east southeast flow
will persist, supporting potential for additional slow
moving/stationary cells in what will continue to be an axis of
above average PW values, 2+ standard deviations above the mean,
across central to North Florida.  The marginal risk area was drawn
to encompass where the HREF neighborhood probabilities were high
during the first half of the day 2 period, 1200 UTC Tue to 0000
UTC Wednesday for 1 and 2"+ amounts, with values of 60-90% and
45-70% respectively.  Confidence remains low with respect to
placement detail of any slow moving or stationary cells, with
isolated runoff issues possible where these cells set up,
especially over more urbanized regions.  With respect to changes
to the previous outlook for this period, the north side was
trimmed south by approximately 70 miles out of coastal GA.  The
south side was extended about the equal amount to cover the higher
HREF probabilities.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 23 2022 - 12Z Thu Nov 24 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KDl4mLvjLC4wsmeDxqbnZEkxulKzU999FaizyvpuI36=
W3GYbP6iNFEnleO_wJlbMVPJ60oPNZF_soAC8_kM_LQCgE4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KDl4mLvjLC4wsmeDxqbnZEkxulKzU999FaizyvpuI36=
W3GYbP6iNFEnleO_wJlbMVPJ60oPNZF_soAC8_kMhnYiRwQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-KDl4mLvjLC4wsmeDxqbnZEkxulKzU999FaizyvpuI36=
W3GYbP6iNFEnleO_wJlbMVPJ60oPNZF_soAC8_kMMOWyORk$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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