Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 21 2022 16:12:09

ACUS01 KWNS 211612
SWODY1
SPC AC 211610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms remains negligible across much of the
U.S. today through tonight.

....Discussion...
Mid/upper flow has trended more zonal across North America, with
much of the U.S. now most prominently under the influence of
westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific.  However, flow
remains broadly confluent inland of Pacific coastal areas through
the Atlantic Seaboard, with relatively cool and stable conditions
only slowly beginning to modify.

This includes seasonably cold surface ridging being maintained from
the lee of the southern Rockies, as far south as the northwestern
Gulf coast vicinity, into the western Atlantic.  Although insolation
and moistening northeasterly to easterly near-surface flow may begin
to modify the boundary layer across the Florida Peninsula
(particularly southeastern through east central portions), weak
forcing for ascent and mid-level lapse rates may only allow for
scattered shower development with some potential to occasionally
produce lightning.

...Kerr/Thornton.. 11/21/2022

$$

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