Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 21 2022 12:21:33

ACUS01 KWNS 211221
SWODY1
SPC AC 211219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across much of the
CONUS.

A recently decayed area of thunderstorms over a part of south TX was
supported by scant buoyancy from highly elevated convection rooted
near 700 mb. As large-scale ascent diminishes with eastward
progression of a low-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough over
the southern Great Plains and showers spread away from the source of
mid-level instability, potential for additional thunderstorm
development should become negligible in the next couple hours.

A gradually expanding maritime tropical air mass over parts of the
FL peninsula will pose a conditional threat for isolated
thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon and along the Atlantic
coast late today into tonight. The former will require cloud breaks
with some boundary-layer heating to overcome persistent weaknesses
in mid-level lapse rates (5-5.5 C/km per 12Z Miami sounding) and
large-scale ascent. The latter should predominately consist of
scattered convection over the adjacent coastal waters tonight.

...Grams.. 11/21/2022

$$

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