Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 21 2022 09:19:32

ACUS48 KWNS 210919
SWOD48
SPC AC 210918

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CST Mon Nov 21 2022

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Large spread among medium range guidance regarding the evolution of
a large-scale trough over the Plains early Day 4/Thu through at
least Day 6/Sat continues to result in larger than average forecast
uncertainty. Forecast guidance appears to be clustered around two
different solutions. One being a more progressive upper trough and
developing upper low, shifting east from the Plains and moving
offshore the Atlantic coast through Day 6/Sat. The second cluster of
solutions develops a more cut-off upper low, shifting more slowly
eastward from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and
eventually the Mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Sun.

Despite this, overall severe potential appears limited at this time,
mainly due to only modest Gulf moisture return and poor
destabilization due to lack of stronger surface heating. Trends will
continue to be monitored for any increasing severe potential across
parts of the Gulf coast states around Days 4-5/Thu-Fri, as any
increase in boundary-layer moisture or indication that stronger
heating may occur could result in a corridor of strong/severe
thunderstorm potential.

...Leitman.. 11/21/2022

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