Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 21 2022 07:57:16

FOUS30 KWBC 210757
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...

No significant changes made to the marginal risk area for the
upcoming day 1 period along the east central coast of Florida.=20
The axis of above average PW values currently centered across
South Florida, will be creeping northward day 1 into central
Florida.  Boundary layer convergence in this high pw axis...2 to
2.5+ standard deviations above the mean...expected to strengthen
as east southeasterly low level flow strengthens into the east
central Florida coastal region.  This will support increasing
shower activity late Monday afternoon into Monday night/early
Tuesday, with the potential for cells to be very slow
moving/nearly stationary in the max boundary layer convergence
axis along east central Florida coast.  Confidence is low with
respect to where these cells may become stationary, but in those
areas, hourly rainfall rates of 1-2"+ are possible, resulting in
localized runoff issues, especially in more urbanized regions.=20
The marginal risk area fits well with where the latest HREF
neighborhood probabilities are high for 2 and 3"+ totals day 1,
60-90% and 50-70% respectively.=20

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022 - 12Z Wed Nov 23 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

The favorable pattern for heavy rainfall along coastal sections of
east central Florida will continue for at least the first half of
the upcoming day 2 period before the onshore flow weakens during
the second half.  Prior to the weakening of the onshore flow, well
defined boundary layer convergence expected to persist into east
central to northeast Florida where low level east southeast flow
will persist , supporting potential for additional slow
moving/stationary cells in what will continue to be an axis of
above average PW values, 2+ standard deviations above the mean,
across central to North Florida.  The marginal risk area was drawn
to encompass where the HREF neighborhood probabilities were high
during the first half of the day 2 period, 1200 UTC Tue to 0000
UTC Wednesday for 1 and 2"+ amounts, with values of 60-90% and
45-70% respectively.  Confidence remains low with respect to
placement detail of any slow moving or stationary cells, with
isolated runoff issues possible where these cells set up,
especially over more urbanized regions.  With respect to changes
to the previous outlook for this period, the north side was
trimmed south by approximately 70 miles out of coastal GA.  The
south side was extended about the equal amount to cover the higher
HREF probabilities.

Oravec


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9MGFDdUW0ZnGmfsoL9tkXiqE85rA2YJNO2M588XVYl-I=
FPooO9fEhEsb8ZUGdq3BUTVeSapSxGlvo9Dg2g0d95gGWDw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9MGFDdUW0ZnGmfsoL9tkXiqE85rA2YJNO2M588XVYl-I=
FPooO9fEhEsb8ZUGdq3BUTVeSapSxGlvo9Dg2g0d03dN0j0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9MGFDdUW0ZnGmfsoL9tkXiqE85rA2YJNO2M588XVYl-I=
FPooO9fEhEsb8ZUGdq3BUTVeSapSxGlvo9Dg2g0dvpFMAr0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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