Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 21 2022 07:53:44

FOUS30 KWBC 210753
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022 - 12Z Tue Nov 22 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...

No significant changes made to the marginal risk area for the
upcoming day 1 period along the east central coast of Florida.=20
The axis of above average PW values currently centered across
South Florida, will be creeping northward day 1 into central
Florida.  Boundary layer convergence in this high pw axis...2 to
2.5+ standard deviations above the mean...expected to strengthen
as east southeasterly low level flow strengthens into the east
central Florida coastal region.  This will support increasing
shower activity late Monday afternoon into Monday night/early
Tuesday, with the potential for cells to be very slow
moving/nearly stationary in the max boundary layer convergence
axis along east central Florida coast.  Confidence is low with
respect to where these cells may become stationary, but in those
areas, hourly rainfall rates of 1-2"+ are possible, resulting in
localized runoff issues, especially in more urbanized regions.=20
The marginal risk area fits well with where the latest HREF
neighborhood probabilities are high for 2 and 3"+ totals day 1,
60-90% and 50-70% respectively.=20

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ehUdJYr5T1lTzaE76-bxZmIzHjgtAXqDhDL81mPoHWI=
5wkf3B__EBSXc73QiP_2D0f3poGHg8HuOQ3345SAJsgrHsQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ehUdJYr5T1lTzaE76-bxZmIzHjgtAXqDhDL81mPoHWI=
5wkf3B__EBSXc73QiP_2D0f3poGHg8HuOQ3345SAaD1x_v4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8ehUdJYr5T1lTzaE76-bxZmIzHjgtAXqDhDL81mPoHWI=
5wkf3B__EBSXc73QiP_2D0f3poGHg8HuOQ3345SAXEdfe9k$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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